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LLM Backtesting and workbench - #204
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minaattari wants to merge 8 commits into
Open
minaattari wants to merge 8 commits into
minaattari wants to merge 8 commits into
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merge updates from vector
Add XGBoost predictor for manufacturing stress forecasts
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This commit adds a manufacturing-stress forecasting workbench that:
Synchronizes project dependencies with uv sync.
Loads and refreshes FRED data.
Runs historical-frequency, logistic-regression, and XGBoost predictors.
Supports optional LLM backtesting using RUN_LLMP_BACKTEST.
Caches LLM results to avoid repeated token usage.
Uses the same Brier-score evaluation across all predictors.
Supports configurable backtest stride and current forecasts.
Adds the cached LLMP backtest runner, tests, and documentation.