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weather-p1: the storm spine — center + ring profile + wn-1 dipole (90.9–94.3%), moderators identified but unwired #926

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Merged
AdaWorldAPI merged 23 commits into from
Aug 12, 2026
Merged

weather-p1: the storm spine — center + ring profile + wn-1 dipole (90.9–94.3%), moderators identified but unwired #926

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494ab29
probe(weather): voxel-chess — rotation physics as bitboard popcounts,…
claude Aug 11, 2026
05a7250
probe(weather): sunflower-cyclone — the golden-spiral encoding, measu…
claude Aug 11, 2026
2449822
probe(weather): go-territory — measured and FAILED on 3 of 4 bars, co…
claude Aug 11, 2026
db57aac
probe(weather): comet-tail — the missing axisymmetry IS wavenumber-1,…
claude Aug 11, 2026
d9a98b8
docs(weather): comet-tail report at product-lead level + board entry
claude Aug 11, 2026
f6310b0
probe(weather): comet-tail follow-up — my apparatus gate FAILED, the …
claude Aug 11, 2026
432bcab
probe(weather): CT-F4 clears the blocking item, CT-F7 lands the land-…
claude Aug 11, 2026
ffa2e35
probe(weather): CT-F5 fixes F1 saturation; CT-N n=10 blind sample spl…
claude Aug 11, 2026
e24ecf3
probe(weather): CT-F10/F11/F13 -- a second independent sample reverse…
claude Aug 11, 2026
4f1a1b4
probe(weather): CT-F14 pre-registration -- displacement-filtered-only…
claude Aug 11, 2026
b86a81e
probe(weather): CT-F14 result -- the properly-powered test doesn't cl…
claude Aug 11, 2026
feec4b7
docs(weather): §9 reframe — the spine is found, the moderators are mi…
claude Aug 11, 2026
5302828
probes: address the 16 PR #926 review findings — one corrects the hea…
claude Aug 11, 2026
d03978b
board: record the PR #926 review findings + correct an overstatement
claude Aug 11, 2026
2357de1
probes: document the shared helpers (34% -> 91% docstring coverage)
claude Aug 11, 2026
ec1b079
probe(weather): the three-register picture, measured — there is no ab…
claude Aug 11, 2026
dcfb8a0
probes: close the last 10 docstring gaps — 93.1% -> 100%
claude Aug 11, 2026
96e86b9
probes/weather-p1: measure the storm spine against the REAL L4 carrie…
claude Aug 11, 2026
6f9a90a
probes/weather-p1: clear the 8 external review findings; 2 were real …
claude Aug 11, 2026
d4e8175
probes/weather-p1: document the L4 carrier + three-register results (…
claude Aug 11, 2026
3179ede
probes/weather-p1: CT-F14 was still listed "not run" in two places --…
claude Aug 12, 2026
031bcc0
probes/weather-p1: 3 open review findings -- 2 were code-fixed-but-ar…
claude Aug 12, 2026
072a377
probes/weather-p1: R2 used var() not MSE at 11 sites -- and it hid a …
claude Aug 12, 2026
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322 changes: 322 additions & 0 deletions .claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md
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931 changes: 931 additions & 0 deletions probes/weather-p1/COMET_TAIL_REPORT.md
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207 changes: 207 additions & 0 deletions probes/weather-p1/comet_tail_f10_f11.json
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{
"store": "https://storage.googleapis.com/weatherbench2/datasets/era5/1959-2022-6h-1440x721.zarr",
"sample_start": "1980-02-10T12:00:00",
"stride_days": 411,
"n_candidates": 15,
"rows": [
{
"date": "1980-02-10T12:00:00",
"t0": 30842,
"center_lat": 46.69223787871181,
"center_lon": 321.36432542323297,
"displacement_km": 135.63575106831914,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.628856457656897,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.8545934458405746,
"error_deg": -92.97109364728313,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1981-03-27T12:00:00",
"t0": 32486,
"center_lat": 48.92486050236569,
"center_lon": 345.01823101795355,
"displacement_km": 222.0045582791306,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.9045030528074844,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.9438245000977159,
"error_deg": -20.88097918876568,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1982-05-12T12:00:00",
"t0": 34130,
"center_lat": 47.97766935852807,
"center_lon": 153.37771288174426,
"displacement_km": 131.92171455168986,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.5916269721362224,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.9607952352984042,
"error_deg": -153.31708981303188,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1983-06-27T12:00:00",
"t0": 35774,
"center_lat": 28.9105918421428,
"center_lon": 67.83593520767262,
"displacement_km": 12.99254627435683,
"CT_E2_trackable": false,
"status": "NOT-TRACKABLE"
},
{
"date": "1984-08-11T12:00:00",
"t0": 37418,
"center_lat": 63.0,
"center_lon": 315.9560617272064,
"displacement_km": 118.19750326644628,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.8417670116416098,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.9143783031954809,
"error_deg": -72.21558022018336,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1985-09-26T12:00:00",
"t0": 39062,
"center_lat": 29.997842013566018,
"center_lon": 284.6331381239523,
"displacement_km": 163.15273443482124,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.8481833256690069,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.966594833549946,
"error_deg": 18.124329929345407,
"sign_negative": false
},
{
"date": "1986-11-11T12:00:00",
"t0": 40706,
"center_lat": 55.380629609588915,
"center_lon": 312.59062947910223,
"displacement_km": 277.5031914159023,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.7596036253145539,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.8539855095982779,
"error_deg": -41.91781393062573,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1987-12-27T12:00:00",
"t0": 42350,
"center_lat": 50.04223886424398,
"center_lon": 329.871606898506,
"displacement_km": 343.30238430474316,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.9222191170016778,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.9436538419987199,
"error_deg": -17.356647012543647,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1989-02-10T12:00:00",
"t0": 43994,
"center_lat": 55.61303453356034,
"center_lon": 318.7445443332808,
"displacement_km": 438.4521705711391,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.8695689494523423,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.9364385109562684,
"error_deg": -46.04671589769973,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1990-03-28T12:00:00",
"t0": 45638,
"center_lat": 52.53971016691554,
"center_lon": 182.66171472593436,
"displacement_km": 192.03898301009167,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.6890623749942085,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.8866657330465724,
"error_deg": -40.64972313837734,
"sign_negative": true
},
{
"date": "1991-05-13T12:00:00",
"t0": 47282,
"center_lat": 52.189441129488266,
"center_lon": 250.15073954493647,
"displacement_km": 134.3856569016244,
"CT_E2_trackable": true,
"status": "OK",
"wn1_frac": 0.13792706578736133,
"R2_profile_wn1": 0.7632855741063911,
"error_deg": 37.23294432626912,
"sign_negative": false
},
{
"date": "1992-06-27T12:00:00",
"t0": 48926,
"center_lat": 30.962186946701625,
"center_lon": 85.7428667774291,
"displacement_km": 4.259276779660015,
"CT_E2_trackable": false,
"status": "NOT-TRACKABLE"
},
{
"date": "1993-08-12T12:00:00",
"t0": 50570,
"center_lat": 32.66686855435837,
"center_lon": 83.84407774117935,
"displacement_km": 66.4636172410943,
"CT_E2_trackable": false,
"status": "NOT-TRACKABLE"
},
{
"date": "1994-09-27T12:00:00",
"t0": 52214,
"center_lat": 26.30630015082043,
"center_lon": 132.4714451359455,
"displacement_km": 54.04994018738056,
"CT_E2_trackable": false,
"status": "NOT-TRACKABLE"
},
{
"date": "1995-11-12T12:00:00",
"t0": 53858,
"center_lat": 53.73237073051221,
"center_lon": 160.71640607645267,
"displacement_km": 35.12238805382691,
"CT_E2_trackable": false,
"status": "NOT-TRACKABLE"
}
],
"n_valid": 10,
"n_excluded": 5,
"CT_F13": {
"n": 10,
"sign_neg_frac": 0.8,
"median_abs_error_deg": 41.28376853450153,
"pass": true
},
"CT_F10": {
"n": 3,
"verdict": "NO-VERDICT-INSUFFICIENT-N"
},
"CT_F11": {
"n": 9,
"sign_neg_frac": 0.8888888888888888,
"median_abs_error_deg": 41.91781393062573,
"pass": true
},
"CT_F12": {
"n": 3,
"sign_neg_frac": 1.0,
"median_abs_error_deg": 41.91781393062573,
"pass": true
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}
}
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